Stock Chart

RCL - Shorts for tomorrow

06/08/2010 01:55 AM by Hesperian

RCL and MED

RCL is a cruise line with a similar chart to Carnival, but in worse financial shape. I found it using the Altman Z screener. I expect the two charts to diverge sharply soon. It just closed below the 200 day MA for the first time.

MED has recently moved below its 50 day. I've written about them before here. I think they've put their top in and are on their way down the drain with the the other fads of history.

I also wanted to short a stock Dave has mentioned, TCBK, but there were no shares available to short. Technically it looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Another stock that looks very shortable is ACY.

Hopefully my orders get filled tomorrow. I plan on using 7% trailing stops.

It will be a year for the bears. Tim Knight has been backpedaling furiously, revising his "WAG rise" to resemble Hesperian's more bearish predictions more and more every day. He did not 1) appreciate the power of the 200 day MA as resistance and 2) remember that in unsound securities the right shoulder is often anemic and lower than the left shoulder. I think we will get another big rally, but it will be after a steeper decline, and again the 200 day MA will serve as resistance.

We will not completely capitulate until bad news from America suprises the markets. What will the suprise be? 'Unexpected' issues with financial conditions of our beloved States and Munis. We shorts will have the luxury of grabbing a bag of popcorn and enjoying the fireworks, watching those who think shorting is too risky lose another 40% of their portfolio "chasing value".

Rating:
5

Submit a comment

In order to comment please sign in.

  • 06/08/2010 02:30 AM by Dave Pinsen

    RCL is on my watch list too -- I was going to short it Monday, but then held off when it dropped.

    Re TCBK, I ended up shorting PACW instead. A couple of other financials I added to my watch list today are MS and CIT, either or both of which I may short tomorrow. If I do, I'll open up threads on them, to make it easier to track entry and exit prices.

    Incidentally, for others reading this, here is a link to the post where Tim Knight did some backpedaling back to Hesperian's more bearish view: http://slopeofhope.com...

    Rating:
    5
  • 06/08/2010 01:18 PM by Hesperian

    Well I shorted both of these, RCL @ 26.83 and MED @ 28.25. (Yikes at my spelling/grammar @ 2 AM!)

    I did see your PACW post. That's on the radar too. TCBK just looks juicier technically, although it's probably probably stronger fundamentally. Still no shortable shares today.

    MS looks awful.

    Rating:
    5
  • 06/08/2010 03:14 PM by Dave Pinsen

    Another bank I'd been looking at was IBOC. Let me know what you think of that one.

    Rating:
    0
  • 06/08/2010 03:16 PM by Dave Pinsen

    Oh, btw, re RCL: I had a limit order in to short it at 27.05, which I lowered to 26.85. No fill so far. Looks like you picked a good entry point.

    Rating:
    0
  • 06/08/2010 03:55 PM by Dave Pinsen

    Filled. I'm short RCL at $26.85. See you on the Lido deck.

    Rating:
    0
  • 06/08/2010 08:44 PM by Dave Pinsen

    I mentioned shorting RCL on GuruFocus today, and Dr. Paul Price was kind enough to offer some general advice on short selling: http://www.gurufocus.c...

    Rating:
    0
  • 06/08/2010 09:45 PM by Hesperian

    IBOC looks like it might be due for a bounce (50/50). Hard to tell if it will keep plummeting but it seems to be looking for footing. If it gets up near the 200 day EMA then I'd short the hell out of it. Or if it stays above 17.50 for a couple days then I'd probably jump in too.

    Rating:
    4
  • 06/10/2010 03:32 PM by Dave Pinsen

    Stopped out at $28.69 today for a loss of 6.4%.

    Rating:
    0
  • 06/15/2010 12:15 PM by Hesperian

    IBOC got its bounce and bounced off of the 200 day MA as I suspected would happen. Too bad I don't have an automatic trading program so I missed it.

    Rating:
    4
  • 06/17/2010 09:26 PM by Dave Pinsen

    Looks like you called it with IBOC: http://finance.yahoo.c...=

    Rating:
    0
View All RCL Posts
© 2009-2019 Launching Innovation LLC. A simple and effective website by Simande.