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FXI - China pulling a fast one on the markets?
Yesterdays initial morning rally was based on the Chinese indicating they might float their currency, interpreted by Wall Street to mean "they will let their currency appreciate against the USD".
Don't you love the religious quality of the underlying assumption? That the renminbi MUST appreciate, if only we'd let it? Because growth in China, well that's just a fundamental constant of the universe!
I'm not a currency guy, so I could be way off base here, but how about this for a scenario:
The Chinese have a big stimulus-driven inflation problem that's being kept under wraps, as some analysts have intimated. The US is headed for near-term deflation with the problems in Europe.
So maybe the more likely scenario is that the renminbi will decline against the dollar if unpegged, giving another boost to Chinese exports.Thus by making this move, the Chinese are doing what they've always done: Looking out for themselves.
Let me know what you think, Shortscreeners.
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I have no doubt the Chinese are looking out for themselves, but consider that it may be in their interest to have their currency appreciate against the dollar (albeit, slowly). A stronger currency could make their commodity imports less expensive. It would make their exports a little less competitive, of course, but the China wants to climb the value chain anyway.
Now that its workers are successfully demanding higher pay, the Chinese leadership might not mind expediting the process of handing off the lowest margin manufacturing to less developed countries.