TKF is a closed-end fund with holdings in the Republic of Turkey. Generally speaking, Turkey has a rather dynamic modern economy. This is reflected in their stock market which has zoomed since the crash lows of 2009. It is my opinion that TKF or TUR are at a good spot to short technically. The fundamental backdrop is that Turkey while having taken economic reforms seriously enough to reign in inflation, they do have a budget deficit, a current account deficit, and a large debt to GDP ratio. Another economic downturn in the near future could really hurt the Turkish economy again. As an example, in 2009, the GDP shrunk by about 6%.

Short TKF with a stop around 16.00. If shares cannot be borrowed, TUR would make a fine substitute. TKF is trading at a discount to NAV of about 8%, so, a pair trade of shorting TUR and buying TKF might make sense for some.

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