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CRM - This cloud is coming down to earth
Just went short at 99.15.
Insane valuation, insider selling, will get squeezed by big boys like Google, Microsoft, etc.
Company recently lowered guidance. Not a good sign for such a high flying growth stock with a PE of 159 (!).
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Well, there was one day of profit, LOL.
Tried to short more here, but Scottrade told me there were no shares available for shorting. Will try again monday.
For those curious, here is what triggered the euphoria:
"Salesforce /quotes/comstock/13*!crm/quotes/nls/crm (CRM 110.64, +14.23, +14.76%) climbed $13.08 a share, or 13.5%, to $109.46 after the online software company late Thursday reported its second-quarter earnings fell to $14.7 million, or 11 cents a share, from $21.2 million, or 17 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
However, Salesforce's revenue rose 25% to $394.4 million, and excluding one-time items, the company would have earned 29 cents a share. "
These recurring "one-time" items that always get excluded are a topic for another post.
Needless to say, I'm still bearish. This is a single-stock bubble.
(Yes, doubters, I do "get" their whole cloud-computing business. I remain very skeptical of their ability to keep up the growth and fend off competitors. I'm not alone either - check the short interest, and the paucity of shares available to short)
With this valuation, investors seem to be pricing in a huge moat. Driving around in Silicon Valley today, I saw a sign or a billboard for a competitor SugarCRM ( http://www.sugarcrm.co... ) which, according to its site, is backed by one of the leading VC firms, Draper Fisher Jurvetson.
Finally, someone who has conviction in their beliefs.
Instead of getting 'stopped out' by unexpected market action Hesperian is taking advantage of the rise to short more shares.
This makes sense artehr than covering at a loss simply because overpriced shares got more overpriced.
Maybe, Stockdoc.
It is priced to perfection. I, personally, would wait for a reversal pattern.
What do you see as a good entry point, Chris?
A good entry is tough to call right now. For all I know we've now put in the highs or we'll be at 120+ by the Nov earnings release.
I think that large cap will provide relative safety vs mid, small, micro and emerging. Having said that, I think the two "safest" points in large cap will be the momentum stocks and value stocks. Real value stocks, which are few an far between, not what often are called value stocks. CRM in a way deserves to be up so much. Money has to go somewhere and they've got a good growth story. It will get smacked at some point because it truly is way overvalued. With this valuation, even if they beat estimates on the next qtr earnings report by only a few cents, it could get hurt bad.
I almost bought this stock back in May. Too bad I didn't. I was looking for large cap growth with strong balance sheets and it fit the bill. I thought it was too expensive and it looked overextended. Shows what I know. LOL
OK, thanks for the explication, c-note.