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TRAD,ETFC - ET phone home
Okay, for a pairs trade based on quality of product and (my)anticipated revs and thus earnings as well as debt/ equity and share holder dilution. Long TRAD /short ETFC.
TRAD has no debt, a better product and a higher caliber clientele. They've actually been reducing the number of shares over the last few years too.
ETFC has sullied their name by getting caught up in the financial morass a couple years ago and I anticipate that even though they're now offering futures and global equity markets they will see they're client base shrink in the coming years.
Because of their MAJOR debt problem they diluted the HELL out of their share holders in 2009.
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Interesting idea. I wonder though if that hedge fund manager's idea with RDI might make sense in this sector too, i.e., going long what you think is the best-of-breed in this sector and shorting a handful of the others. I'm thinking that retail investors' general retreat from equities as the secular bear market continues could mean a shrinking pie for this whole sector. But maybe the best one will manage to grow market share even if the market shrinks.
N.B., in the future, when posting pairs trades here, if you place a comma between the symbols with no spaces, that brings up both charts (e.g., CKEC,RDI: http://shortscreen.com... ).
Incidentally, Chris: have you seen the posts by Avoidthegarbage and Hesperian on ONP ( http://shortscreen.com... )? I'm thinking of buying the furthest-out $5 strike puts on ONP. What say you?
Certainly the secular bear is what I was alluding to with ETFC having shrinking revenues. AMTD might be a good long because they have a healthy balance sheet BUT the problems with TOS are ANNOYING and might mean that a lot of their better customers(the ones that can trade in a bear market) leave for IB, TS or elsewhere.
OXPS might be a buyout candidate at some point as they are pretty good but their commissions are way to high in this day and age. When they lost Prophet charts, in my opinion they lost an edge. If they ever bring their commissions down to compete with TOS I can see AMTD or another taking them over.
I have read the ONP stuff and I'm in agreement. As long as that Muddy Waters guy is right, then it's a "sure thing". I've been concerned about the smaller Chinese stuff being legit for a long time. There's no way to know unless you go there. Some of the smaller domestic stuff can have the same risk obviously.
Will do on the comma with the pairs. Is there a way to edit this one?
Good points about the online trading sector and the players in it.
I'd feel better about buying puts on ONP if there were March expiration ones -- I figured they'd come out with March ones after the August op/ex, but I don't see them. I may just get the Febs. I've got a basket of puts stocks I'm confidently bearish on (e.g., AIB, HOV, etc.), but I'd like to keep things staggered out by maturity in the event the Fed decides to pull a rabbit out of its hat.
Will ask the tech guys if they can edit this one to put in a comma on the back-end.
Fixed the comma issue, both charts are up.