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SPY - 13 Signs We're in a Depression Now
Sobering stuff from David Rosenberg, via Business Insider:
"This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its sustenance."
Check out the 13 reasons, each backed by a chart, at the link: http://bit.ly/afy7Ka
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The market is climbing the proverbial "Wall of Worry" .
You might be right on the economy and wrong on stock price action.
You're right that market action doesn't always mirror conditions in the real economy.
Did you see this post: http://shortscreen.com...
One thing I do know is at least in my neck of the woods, main street is not anywhere near in a depression currently. At least not like the one in the 1930s my Dad described. My Dad is old enough to remember what it was like and he had very little during that time as a kid. Stories of friends staying under houses (crawl space) sometimes while looking for work cuz they'd been evicted after losing job, house, car, etc so many times they had no money and no place to stay. Someone with a job and house sometimes welcoming in somewhat unknown guests for a meal sometimes to 'share the wealth' of a good meal. Shoes worn thru underneath, put tape over the hole to keep 'em going a little longer... Wait, I do that one sometimes on my 'fishing' shoes. Doesn't last long in the water though.
Anyhow, anecdotal but IMO 'we' are not in one on main street. Yet.
I say raise taxes and cut spending and don't wait. I have a young kid.
Avoidthegarbage,
I don't think David Rosenberg would argue with you about that at all. We have stabilizers in place today that we didn't have back then (unemployment insurance, food stamps, Medicaid, Social Security, etc.).
"One thing I do know is at least in my neck of the woods, main street is not anywhere near in a depression currently"
Where is your neck of the woods? That makes a big difference.
1 in 7 Americans lives in poverty: http://news.yahoo.com/...
The poverty level is $21,954 for a family of four. So there's a lot more who may not be "in poverty", but still pretty damn poor.
Personally I'm seeing a lot more homeless peoplewandering about than during the last recession. (I doubt many of these people were homeowners who went under).
"We have stabilizers in place today that we didn't have back then (unemployment insurance, food stamps, Medicaid, Social Security, etc.). "
When we have to cut back on those stabilizers it will feel a lot more like a depression.
"When we have to cut back on those stabilizers it will feel a lot more like a depression."
Good point. How long will we be able to keep spending like this? Actually worth thinking about that question under two scenarios: one with current Treasury yields, and one where investors start demanding higher yields. At higher yields, servicing the debt will put a bigger squeeze on government spending.