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DUCK - Long idea DUCK in low $12s?
Have seen retail get mentioned for short side here. Curious what thoughts might be on a small retailer serving smalltown midwest America mostly going long.
Weak balance sheet in terms of growing debt recently driven by poor performance.
But I think operationally they have a few things just getting going for them so started buying in the low-mid $12s.
Dollar General is a more fit and larger competitor but also much more expensive. I'll write more as I look at DUCK closer. Looks like they may change their trading symbol to ALCO fairly soon (they closed out their smaller Duckwall retail stores recently).
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On Bloomberg TV recently, an analyst noted that there'd been a bifurcation in retail: high-end places were doing well, as the rich kept spending, and dollar stores and the like were doing well too; it was the retailers aimed at the middle class that were lagging.
DUCK would probably land pretty squarely in the middling area I suspect. That said I like them and think they are just beginning their meaningful turnaround. Not going to be easy with higher costs from China labor, higher fuel prices, squeezed customer base, etc.
Still think geogrpahically speaking I'd squarely prefer their geographic region to other areas of the country and like their DSD changeover, recent change to FIFO acctng, more permanent SGA changes that should help lower that cost going fwd, and concentration on just Alco stores .
There should be a little more liquidity floating around in smalltown midwest/farmbelt US compared to many other areas. Plus they have some serious easy comps for the next 3 quarters. By then the valuation proposition will probably be more fully realized IMO (currently trading at less than 1/2 book value) so looking at maybe a 6-12 month hold subject to change. They have lost foot traffic though YOY so would like to see that metric return to positive.
As with any value play, it's a mixed bag but I'm willing to put a little money to work.
If it falls into the mid $11s area I'll probably get more.