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Below is a list of today's twenty-five most distressed stocks (according to their Altman Z-Score or Z''-Score, respectively) with a share price of $5 or higher. For details on how this ranking list is compiled, please click here.
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UAUA - New short position: UAL
Bought some strike $6, JUN 10 puts on UAUA today. Details: http://bit.ly/6qShx5
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These went against me Monday, despite the stock dropping marginally. Still plenty of time until expiration though, and oil rising and increased security hassles for air travelers are headwinds for airlines generally.
.25 cents now. This one hasn't panned out for you too well so far.
I've been short UAUA since about $13. Not so good so far. However, I think the intrinsic value is around $8. The Z-score continues to be terrible. I also did a fit of the Sornette bubble detector formula to a year of UAUA closing prices. The fit has a 97% R-squared (high confidence) and it predicts a big price correction within the week. UAUA is pretty surely in a bubble.
I have wondered if one could use the same sort of multidiscriminant analysis Altman used to create his models to make a timing model that incorporates the Sornette bubble detector formula. Another project for the queue.