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bidu - 1999 all over again?
BIDU is trading at a PE over 100. MercadoLibre(MELI) is trading at a PE of over 70, but analysts still say it is cheap because it is cheaper than BIDU. The only pure-play social networking company, QPSA, has been on a tear also. It's not making money, but it's gaining users. Surely this means it will take over the interwebs soon.
These market conditions all seems oddly familiar, and probably worth shorting. The utopian projections for these stocks will certainly be derailed and have a violent correction at some point.
But should I pull the trigger now? If not, when?
Or does anyone want to be a contrarian contrarian and make the case that these companies are fairly valued?
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The day after you post this, Credit Suisse downgrades BIDU: http://finance.yahoo.c...
Ha, "for valuation reasons" to boot. Good for that analyst.
One look at AMZN and NILE, in addition to the stocks mentioned above and CTRP, is really making me think we are having a mini internet bubble all over again.
I am strongly tempted to short AMZN, BIDU, and NILE right now.
Oooh, and NFLX too.
Speaking of NFLX... http://shortscreen.com...
Re China in general, I just saw a replay of a Willow Bay interview with Gary Shilling on Bloomberg, from the Milken conference earlier in the week. He made a pretty compelling near-term bear case for China.
First, he noted the enormous size of China's stimulus last year. He said it was equivalent to a $7 trillion fiscal stimulus in our economy. He also said that of China's 8.9% growth last year, about 8% of it was construction. And he noted that, initially, overcapacity can be disguised by the act of building more overcapacity, i.e., you need a lot of steel and cement to build steel plants and cement plants, so it looks like your economy is using all of that.
Shilling said that China's government can act quickly (because it doesn't have to wait for environmental impact statements, etc. when building new infrastructure, etc.), but it's tools are crude. So it overshot on the stimulus, and it's going to overshoot, most likely, on cooling the Chinese economy.
That's amazing. 8% of the 8.9% Chinese "growth" was mostly construction. Dig the holes, then fill them up. Yeah, the Chinese consumer ain't gonna fuel that kind of growth anytime soon. China is still very dependent on exporting to the rest of the world for real growth.
For those who doubt China has a property bubble, this article is good: http://articles.latime...
" Taxi drivers boast of owning multiple flats for investment. Billboards hawk developments with names such as Villa Glorious and Rich Country. Frenzied crowds pack sales events with bags of cash, buying units that exist only on blueprints. Average home values in Hefei soared 50% last year.
China's real estate rush, once confined to a handful of leading cities, has spilled into the hinterlands with a ferocity reminiscent of American expansion into exurbs like the Inland Empire.
In a country that economists say is treading dangerously close to a full-blown property bubble, Hefei represents more evidence of China's headlong embrace of housing to power economic growth.
"The situation in Hefei is a symbol of the craziness in China's real estate market," said Cao Jianhai, a professor of economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. "Prices in second- and third-tier cities are increasing more dramatically than in the first tier. It's very dangerous, and it puts local banks at risk."