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GS - Now a criminal investigation

04/30/2010 01:49 AM by Dave Pinsen

By the U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan: http://news.yahoo.com/...

Anyone thinking of shorting GS here?

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  • 05/01/2010 12:29 AM by Dave Pinsen

    More GS musings: http://steamcatapult.c...

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  • 05/01/2010 03:12 PM by Hesperian

    GS chart looks pretty shitty, and if you think there will be a general market correction soon, then the chances of its PPS recovering seem slim. You also have to wonder how many clients will continue to trust GS going forward.

    On the other hand, I can see how many people will think GS represents a good value at these prices. It's too hard for me to call, so I'm not going to go long or short. But I will be an interested observer.

    You have to wonder what was going on behind the scenes, given GS "investments" in government officials on both sides of the aisle. Was this the result of some kind of tension between the SEC and the Obama administration?

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  • 05/01/2010 07:47 PM by Dave Pinsen

    My guess is that it was just a matter of Goldman's tarnished reputation becoming more of a liability to the administration. There's a tipping point with reputation-reliant businesses. I don't know if we're quite there yet, but Goldman has already lost its "good" reputation. As hyperbolic as Taibbi's article last year seemed to be, he apparently was closer to the zeitgeist than those who dismissed him.

    Nevertheless, Goldman, up until recently, has still had its "effective"/"power" reputation. I.e., regardless of what value judgments people have about the firm's actions, they believed that "Goldman always wins". Goldman is connected, etc. If clients and potential clients start questioning if that reputation is still accurate, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Plenty of distance down from here. I'm not in any rush, but I may short this if the downward trend continues for another few percent.

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