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AAPL - Witness the Power of the Dark Side
"Hey! That's no Apple, that's the Death Star!"
I wish I had a cool graphic of an energy beam coming out of the bite in the Apple logo blowing Jason Chen to smithereens. Jobs also looks SO like a Sith Lord in black.
Today I found this article that summarized much of the fundamental reasons for my Apple bearishness better than I could: http://finance.yahoo.c...=
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"Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL - News) used to be the company that everybody loved. Now it's the company everybody fears.
Take Wall Street. It's terrified of this stock.
Fund managers are afraid not to own it. Hedge funds are afraid to bet against it. And you can sort of see why. Apple has repeatedly blown past forecasts and the stock has skyrocketed. The company just reported an early boom in iPad sales. Anyone who had bet the other way is already feeling it: The stock jumped again Monday to $267, near a new record. The stock, which fell Friday, bounced $5 to $266, nearing a new all-time high. Five years ago it was around $35.
Analysts have been cowed by Apple. Forty cover it. But according to data from Thomson Reuters, no fewer than 36 of them are bullish, rating it either a "buy" or "outperform." Just one analyst rates it as a sell.
Journalists are terrified of this company too.
Why? Just ask Jason Chen - the editor at tech blog Gizmodo who got his hands on the next iPhone. Apple's response? They sent in the police, who smashed down Chen's front door, ransacked his house -- while he was out -- and carted off computers and files. When Chen returned home from dinner with his wife, they frisked him too....
...Do the math. Apple stock is $266. And there are just under 1 billion of these shares in existence. At current prices, if you wanted to buy the entire company it would cost you about $240 billion.
To put that in context, for the same amount of money you could own Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM - News), the world's largest gold-mining company.
And E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD - News), the chemicals giant.
And Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K - News), whose products appear on every breakfast table.
And Shrek studio DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA - News).
And H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB - News), the company that does everybody's taxes.
And The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT - News) And Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP - News).
And the Estee Lauder Cos Inc. (NYSE: EL - News).
And Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF - News), the Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY - News), Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG - News), Expedia Inc. (NYSE: EXPE - News), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF - News), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO - News), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC - News), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS - News), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG - News), Whole Foods Market Inc. (NYSE: WFMI - News), Starbucks Corp. (NYSE: SBUX - News), Netflix Inc. (NYSE: NFLX - News), JetBlue Airways Corp. (NYSE: JBLU - News), NStar (NYSE: NST - News), and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS - News).
No kidding.
I have no problem with paying more for Apple than for any of these companies. But for all of them put together? Seriously?
If you had $240 billion, which would you rather own?
...That new iPhone? What a total meh. So what if it has new volume controls? Or a metal strip around the side? Apple needs people to line up round the block for its next product. Will this really be enough?
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Indeed, it won't be. To think the company will continue to grow at the rate it has been, means it will become more than half the value of the Nasdaq in just a couple years (it's now at 20%).
Seems improbable to me, especially when you consider (in no particular order):
1) emerging competition from Google, Microsoft, and others. The Android is making gains, and Apple's technological edge will not last.
2) the unsustainability of the American (and European) consumer's ability to continually fork out for high-priced gadgets. How many americans will buy new iPads in a recession?
3) the erosion of its brand and fan base through heavy handed Gizmodo tactics.
4) Steve Jobs is a dictatorial asshole. This wears on a company internally, especially when things don't go perfectly.
5) Steve Jobs is not healthy.
6) possible antitrust lawsuits due to Steve Jobs' irrational and bizarre elbowing of Flash...not to mention Amazon.
7) The iPad sucks.
8) The market is overdue for a correction. Apple is a broadly owned company.
I went short Apple at 271.98.
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This reminds me of something someone said about GS on Bloomberg radio (Pim Fox's show) today. Pim asked his guest, who used to work at Drexel, what he thought of the Goldman situation. The guest said the details really weren't important. When a company gets too big and too powerful, when the market fails to contain it, it generates an extra-market response -- prosecutors, regulators, etc. That happened with Drexel, he said, and with Microsoft (the antitrust business in Europe), and now it was happening to Goldman.
If Goldman is a candidate for an extra-market knuckle-rapping, I'd figure Apple is too.
Down nearly 10% today. Nice day for you to be short AAPL